The Story
Welcome to Touchdown Buddha - a website dedicated to the Zen of football handicapping. I developed this site because I could not find the tools I needed to analyze NFL football statistics in the format I wanted. So I set about constructing a site that contains all the information I could find, in an easily readable format, and that is completely free to use. That's right: No subscriptions, no e-mail spam, no ads ... just pure football, for football fans. How's that for Karma?
The Three Truths
I've been picking NFL games for 30 years now; I've written comprehensive spread analysis programs and tested more theories than I can tell you. Through it all, I have found three truths that have remained amazingly consistent year in and year out:
2012 - The 3 Truths
| Games | {games} | |
| Dogs | {dogs} | {dogpct} |
| Spread games | {spreadgames} | {spreadgamespct} |
| Underdogs Covered: | ||
| 1-4pts | {spread14} | |
| 4.5-8.5pts | {spread48} | |
| 9-13.5pts | {spread913} | |
| +14pts | {spread14p} |
- Overall, underdogs cover the spread about 50% of the time. That means each week, if you are picking the entire NFL slate, you should strive to pick half underdogs and half favorites.
- The spread is a factor in the result less than 20% of the time. This means that usually the spread only comes into play in 2 to 3 games each weekend. Most handicappers would be better off forgetting the spread and simply picking a winner for the game.
- In games where the underdog loses but beats the spread, the size of the spread is not a factor. You would think that this situation would occur more often with larger spreads, but in reality an underdog that is getting four points or less beats the spread just as often as teams getting ten points or more.
Yes, I know that these Truths may seem contradictory: Pick 50% underdogs, but ignore the spread. And that's the Zen part ... you have to figure out the riddle. It's why we keep coming back every season, trying to predict football games. Good luck.
The Site
The stats that power this site are updated each week. Here you will find a collection of resources that you can use to make informed analysis of NFL games all season. You can use the Analysis page to create matchup tables for any two teams in the NFL using current season statistics. The Stats page allows you to see how the teams rank in various statistical categories, updated weekly. The Power Rankings page shows the rankings of each team in 7 different categories, and uses these individual ratings to produce an overall power rank. Each week I post my NFL picks and a handful of interesting college picks, and at the end of the year I post my entire college bowl analysis. So take a look around ... and I hope you enjoy the site!