Welcome to Touchdown Buddha - a website dedicated to the Zen of football handicapping. I developed this site because I could not find the tools I needed to analyze NFL football statistics in the format I wanted. So I set about constructing a site that contains all the information I could find, in an easily readable format, and that is completely free to use. That's right: No subscriptions, no e-mail spam, no ads ... just pure football, for football fans. How's that for Karma?
The Three Truths
I've been picking NFL games for 30 years now; I've written comprehensive spread analysis programs and tested more theories than I can tell you. Through it all, I have found three truths that have remained amazingly consistent year in and year out:
2013-2014 - The 3 Truths
- Overall, underdogs cover the spread about 50% of the time. That means each week, if you are picking the entire NFL slate, you should strive to pick half underdogs and half favorites.
- The spread is a factor in the result only about 15% of the time. This means that usually the spread only comes into play in 2 to 3 games each weekend. Most handicappers would be better off forgetting the spread and simply picking a winner for the game.
- The size of the spread is not a factor. Over the years, small underdogs (less than 4 pts) win or beat the spread just as often as larger underdogs.
The bottom line is that the spread rarely matters in a game - only 15% of the time - and picking a game based upon the size of the spread rarely gives you a significant advantage. Most handicappers would be better off ignoring the spread and just picking a winner ... making sure they pick 50% underdogs each week!
The stats that power this site are updated each week. Here you will find a collection of resources that you can use to make informed analysis of NFL games all season. You can use the Analysis page to create matchup tables for any two teams in the NFL using current season statistics. The Stats page allows you to see how the teams rank in various statistical categories, updated weekly. The Power Rankings page shows the rankings of each team using a custom mathematical analysis to provide the overall power rank. Each week I post my NFL picks and of course I will also cover the playoffs. So take a look around ... and I hope you enjoy the site!